Prospective Model in Public Policy for a Democratic and Equitable Election of Regional Leaders

The election of regional leaders conducted directly by the community is believed to result in a democratic government. The formed government is expected to be more open, more responsive, and to carry out the aspirations of the people so that it can realize a government that comes from the people, by the people, and for the people. A person can nominate him/herself as a candidate for Regent or Deputy Regent if supported by some residents, by Political Parties or Combined Political Parties. The relatively weak support of the population or political parties or combined political parties has resulted in very few candidates for regent or deputy regent, even only one pair of candidates can occur as in Pati Regency. The study aims to know how the policy in the future (Prospective Model) should be taken so that the single-candidate for Regent or Deputy Regent in a general election does not happen. By using a sociological juridical approach, collecting primary and secondary data, processing and analyzing data, the objective of the study can be reached.The policy that needs to be taken by the government so that in the future there will be no single candidate is by giving obligations to political parties to conduct cadre recruitment to become candidates for regional leaders. Besides, the General Election Commission needs to make a scheme that is easier and more flexible for individual candidates regarding administrative requirements, procedures, and mechanisms for gathering support, and there needs to be a new policy so that the potential for a single-candidate can be eliminated or not occur.


Introduction
The science of public policy is relatively new, and public policy shows its progress in the United States after the Second World War since the quality of political life had greatly benefited from public policy (Peter deLeon, Danielle M. Vogenbeck,4). The approach that needs to be taken by Public policy is through the way of analyzing future policies so that it can complement or replace traditional forms of policy analysis.1 Lasswell justifies that a policy must be dedicated to a democratic future to achieve the prosperity of all human dignity2 . The public policy issued by the government is intended to create a prosperous society. The Government of Indonesia in regulating the political system is also expected to realize justice and prosperity.3 Among the various policies issued by the government are policies in political field, namely in the form of a law which is in this case the Act Number 10 of 2016 concerning the Second Amendment to Act Number 1 of 2015 concerning Establishment of Government Regulations in Lieu of Law Number 1 Year 2014 concerning the Election of Governors, Regents and Mayors becoming Acts (hereinafter referred to as the Act on Regional Leader's Election).The Act on Election was issued to realize the election of the Governor and Deputy Governor, Regent and Deputy Regent, and Mayor and Deputy Mayor in a democratic manner and strengthen efficient and effective local governance. The democratic election's mechanism is held in the context of the implementation of people's sovereignty in the provinces and regencies/districts. The general explanation of the Act on Regional Leader Election points out that the election of the Governor/deputy governor, regent/deputy regent, and mayor/deputy mayor directly elected and which is a package shows that the costs incurred by the state or candidate pairs are very large, so that there will be a great potential to cause conflict, corruption, and ineffective and inefficient Article 1 number 4 of the Act of Regional Leader Election stipulates that the candidates for regent and deputy regent, candidates for mayor and candidates for deputy mayor are election participants proposed by political parties, a combination of political parties or individuals registered or to be registered in the regency/city's general election commission. The Regional Leader Election (Pilkada) is held to elect leaders directly conducted by the people in one region. This leader is chosen by local residents who meet the requirements based on applicable laws and regulations. The Regional Leader Election is held to elect the governor and deputy governor or regent/mayor and deputy regent/deputy mayor. This election is not regulated in the 1945 Constitution, but by the Acts, among others are Act Number 32 of 2004, Act Number 22 of 2007, and Act Number 6 of 2016. The importance of regional leader election is enabling to get regional leaders who have quality and accountability; can create political stability and governance effectiveness at the local level; enable to improve the quality of national leadership because more opportunities are open for the emergence of national leaders from low class and or regions.4 Election of regional leaders sometimes causes problems, among others because the regeneration to prepare candidates for leaders from the party is very slow, additionally, the conditions set for prospective regional leaders are very heavy. With such political party circumstances and hard conditions resulting in a minimal number of regional leaders, there is even only one pair of a candidate, such as in Pati Regency in the 2017 Regional Leader Election. The problem that needs to be resolved is why supporters of empty boxes filed a lawsuit over the nomination of a single leader candidate and how the prospective future policy model must be developed so that there will be no more election of candidates for regent and deputy-regent candidates or candidates for mayor and deputy mayor with the opponents of empty boxes.

Research Method
The development of alternatives to resolve dissatisfaction with the results of Jepara and Pati regional elections by gathering information from prospective regents, succeeding teams, supporting parties, KPU (General Election Commission), Panwaslu (Election Supervisory Committee) and community groups as input in making policy. Alternative development shows that there are activities to determine alternative policies that can solve the problem. The determination of the policy is based on information and sources that have been obtained. Sources of information obtained about dissatisfaction with the results of the elections. This discussion can bring up or give birth to the development of policy alternatives that make the democratization process more successful. The election process begins with voter data collection, which is to encourage democratization in the organization of the elections. Population growth is needed to be forecasted to support problems in following up on the elections. This research will predict the population in Pati Regency in the next five years. Forecasting is predictive of circumstances based on past trends, assuming that the future has the same pattern as the past.5 Public policy analysis is the relationship between the components of policy information and policy analysis methods that provide the basis for distinguishing three forms of policy analysis, those are prospective, retrospective, and integrase analysis 6 . This research uses prospective analysis, which is prediction and transformation of information before policy action begins and its implementation tends to take the way of thinking of economists, system analysts and operation researchers 6. A prospective model is a form of public policy analysis that directs its study to the consequences of policies before a policy is implemented. This model can be called predictive because it often involves forecasting techniques to predict the possibilities that arise from a proposed policy. The decision-making theory in this prospective analysis approach is a normative decision theory that provides a basis for improving the effects of a policy. Prospective methods (forecasting or recommendations) are aimed more at practical and direct problem-solving efforts.
Decisions made in this analysis will produce policy recommendations, which aim to provide the most superior policy alternatives compared to other alternatives. In the alternative selection process is based on a clear and transparent set of criteria, so that there is a logical reason, that a policy is chosen or rejected 7 . Future policies that can be carried out so that the problems of single pair of leader candidate can be avoided and minimized and can increase the level of participation in elections, i.e. by adopting policies accommodating (1) the need for regeneration of candidate leaders at the party level, (2) the need for policies that can reduce political costs that are too high, (3) law enforcement that needs to be increased so that it will reduce political costs, (4) to lower the standard requirements to be able to run as a candidate for regional leader either supported by political parties, a combination of political parties or from individuals, and (5 ) the need for a progressive policy by looking at the situation and conditions in the field.

Election of Regional Leader with Single Leader Candidate
The general election to elect a regional leader is an important momentum in the context of forming a government and periodically carrying out the next administration. The implementation of the elections which are expected to run democratically can be seen from the affirmation of the principles of the implementation of elections, i.e. direct, general, free, confidential, honest, and fair. Election of Regional Heads in Pati regency in 2017 was only participated by one pair of candidates for Regent and Deputy Regent, so the election of regent and deputy regent of Pati Regency in 2017 took place between one pair of a candidate with an empty box. However, the victory got resistance from the empty box volunteers, who assumed the victory of the candidates for Regent and Deputy Regent were obtained because of fraud, i.e. the existence of the deployment of the State Civil Apparatus (ASN) and alleged money politics, so that empty box volunteers made a lawsuit over the results of the election. Among other things, the number of residents in the district of the petitioner as candidate pair or election supervisor in the case of one candidate pair, the maximum percentage of vote difference between the petitioner and the candidate pair that wins the most votes based on the determination of the vote count result by the respondent is under one percent. Although based on the official calculation of Pati Regency's Election Commission, the difference in votes was found to exceed two percent of the total population, but the practice of structured, massive and widespread fraud allegedly committed by a single candidate pair must be the main consideration of the Constitutional Court to accept the petition of Geram Pati.
The cheating practice found by Geram Pati was that it allegedly involved various parties which should not be allowed, for example the prohibition by the police towards the activities of Empty Box supporters, the activity prohibition and seizure of properties by Satpol PP (Municipal Police Force), manipulation of number of reports, giving permit to the reported party to withdraw reports against it, mobilizing civil servants to be present in the debate of regent candidate that was thought to have been done by Panwaslu (Election Supervisory Committee) and Panwascam (Sub-district Supervisory Committee) and the partiality of KPPS (Polling Station Working Committee) in the Dday of the election.
The petitioner formally did not get accreditation from the Commission of General Election (KPU) as an official observer. However, its existence and activities to encourage the process of democratization, as well as an honest and fair election, had received recognition both from the community locally and nationally. The Alliance also succeeded in gathering evidence of fraud and election violations in all electoral districts (DAPIL). That the petitioner's non-registration as an accredited election observer was also caused by the Pati Regency's Election Commission which was allegedly not accommodative to the petitioner who wished to register as an election observer in Pati Regency. This was confirmed by the incident when the petitioner wanted to register to be an election observer, it was not well served. To encourage the process of democratization and honest and fair elections in Pati Regency, the petitioner had conducted democratic education in form of socialization of the 2017 Regional Leader election (Pilkada), monitoring the election regulations, conducting public discussions with citizens for monitoring the 2017 elections, but it had been often considered to be in a violation. The activities carried out by Geram Pati were forced to disband and were prohibited from doing activities and the destruction of properties. This resulted in the loss of the right of the petitioner to gather, deliver opinions, and provide information to the public, and made it difficult for the public to monitor the pre and current activities during the five-year democratic party process.
During the process or stages in the elections, the petitioner witnessed and received reports from members of the community who have the right to vote that they had witnessed and obtained evidence of various violations and crimes during the campaign period and during the election in which there had been allegations of money politics. This alleged money politics had been reported to Panwaslu (Election Supervisory Committee) of Pati. Monitoring and activities carried out by the petitioner was a form of a resurrection of citizens and accountability for the success of honest and fair elections. Therefore, the petitioner has met the qualifications as an election observer as regulated in PMK No. 1 of 2017 and other applicable laws and regulations. The team of Geram Pati suspected that the determination of the results of the vote count by the KPU that Haryanto-Saiful Arifin won 519,675 votes and the empty column won 177,762 votes from a total of 697,437 valid votes was due to allegations of fraud that were carried out in a structured, systematic and widespread manner. This situation does not necessarily provide a guarantee for a person or group of people to be able to represent an organization that is recognized by applicable laws and regulations. As a result, the vote of the empty box is not guaranteed its right to participate in the calculation.
Geram Pati suspected that there were additions of votes from other candidate pairs in some polling stations. It was done by voting for ballots that were not used by voters because they had not get an invitation to vote. There was an allegation of intimidation to the activists of the Empty Box Alliance and supporters and sympathizers of the Empty Box, such as terror in form of a siege on one of the residents' houses. It was the failure of Panwaslu (Election Supervisory Committee) as a formal institution to monitor elections and follow up on citizens' reports. It was reported that there was an allegation of cheating, intimidation, vandalism and money politics. Alleged money politics is found in all electoral districts. There was an invitation letter for voters who were not distributed by KPPS and the vote is illegally punched by the committee, and this will certainly benefit the existing candidate pairs ( Allegation of structured, massive and widespread fraud was in the form of police involvement that prohibits activities. Satpol PP (Municipal Police Force) also prohibited and seized the properties of Geram Pati. Panwaslu and Panwascam were allegedly related to manipulating the number of reports and allowing the reported party to retract the report. Another practice that was suspected was mobilizing civil servants. Some of them attended the Regent Candidate's debate. Besides, there were KPPS's alignments when voting. "There is a tendency for security forces to support candidate pairs" (Sn, 2018 and 2018). For the lawsuit from volunteers of the empty boxes/columns to the Vol 8 No 1 (2020): Maret, 1-9 Articles General Election Commission (KPU) of Pati regency in the Constitutional Court, it was finally won by the KPU and determined the election victory was the pair Haryanto-Saiful Arifin. With the decision of the Constitutional Court, the General Election Commissioner (KPU) of Pati stated that the Constitutional Court's decision was appropriate, because the KPU had socialized the existence of a single candidate and empty column in accordance with applicable regulations, so it could not be said that the party that did not support the existing Regent/Deputy Regent candidates (supporters of the empty box) were not accommodated (Sn, 2018, 2019).
I'm, a staff member of the Election Supervisory Committee (Panwaslu)-Pati stated that the authority of Panwaslu has been added, so it needs support from the community so that when reporting it must be accompanied by evidence. The public need not be afraid to report suspected violations (Lev, 2018, 2019).
Next Jn, Spokesperson for regent candidate of Pati stated that the existing rules were good. Likewise En, the succeeding team of Pati regent candidate (who was declared victorious) stated that the regulation regarding the election of regent or deputy regent against empty boxes has been clear (En, 2018, 2019).
Based on the collected data and its analysis, it can be seen that the volunteers of the empty boxes who submitted objections or petitions to the Constitutional Court on the decision of the KPU of Pati were due to allegations of election violations. The violation occurred when, for example, the police forbade the activities of the Empty Box's supporters, Satpol PP (Municipal Police Force) carried out the prohibition and seizure of properties, Panwaslu and Panwascam were related to manipulating the number of reports, allowing the reported party to retract reports against it, mobilizing civil servants to be present in the debate of regent candidate and the partiality of KPPS on the D-day of the election. Petition for cancellation of KPU's decision at the Constitutional Court is in the context of maintaining the democratization of the elections.

Prospective Public Policy in the Sector of Regional Leader Election
The election of regional leader in Pati regency began with the Permanent Voter List for the Election of Regent and Vice Regent in Pati Regency in 2017, amounting to 1,034,256 (one million thirty-four thousand two hundred fifty-six) voters. The next stage is that a political party or a combination of political parties can register or promote prospective candidates for regent and deputy regent by having a minimum of 20% of the total number of the Regional House of Representative (DPRD)'s results of the 2014 election of Pati Regency that is at least 10 (ten) seats in the DPRD or at least 25% from the accumulation of valid votes for the 2014 election, which is at least 179,449 valid votes. The candidate pairs from individuals must be able to meet the minimum 6.5% requirement of the total number of voters in the 2014 presidential and vice-presidential election in Pati Regency, which is 67,015 people with the spread of supporters in at least eleven districts. On September 22, 2016 at 10:00, a combination of eight political parties registered Hariyanto as a potential candidate for regent and Saiful Arifin as a candidate for deputy regent, all were received by the chairman and all members of the KPU-Pati. The eight parties consisted of PDIP (8 seats), Gerindra (8 seats), PKS (5 seats), Democrats (6 seats), Golkar (6 seats), Hanura (4 seats), PPP (3 seats), and PKB (6 seats) chair). Until the deadline for registration, there was only one candidate pair that was promoted by a political party or a combination of political parties. With the appointment of the regent/deputy regent candidate, the next step is that the KPU regulates the voter candidate campaign, meaning the regional leader candidates cannot be free to carry out the campaign. Matters arranged in a campaign such as campaign properties, campaign sites, and campaign schedules. Candidates for a regional leader cannot just post pictures on the roadside or advertise in mass media, all are limited and regulated by the KPU. The circumstance made the election less lively because the level of splendor can actually boost public participation. The community does not have the opportunity to choose other potential pairs, so that community participation can be reduced, then the community will prefer to go to work. Moreover, the voting schedule is also not well known. Therefore, to encourage voter participation, the KPU continues to disseminate information to the public, whether through religious institutions, organizations, community groups, and education. Even, the Friday sermon text was also made for preachers.
Ahead of the voting, the invitation was sent by KPU through KPPS. The invitation was in accordance with the number of DPT. Each KPPS goes to the voter candidates. However, there were invitations that were returned because of double voters, voters had moved their addresses, voters had died, and did not match the voter's name. through a discussion about democracy with public figures, (5) for women's groups, (6) in tertiary institutions, (7) with novice voter groups, (8) with the leaders of Pati Regency's Muhammadiyah, and (9) with leaders of Nahdhotul Ulama-Pati. The socialization was also carried out with traditional art performances held in various sub-districts, healthy walk event, talk shows on radio and television, Friday sermons, traveling cars, collaboration with third parties (universities, schools), socialization in the level of district and village as well as the distribution of props.
The KPU of Pati Regency had facilitated campaign props that have been distributed consisting of vision and mission banners, banners and banners. The KPU of Pati also monitored the campaign in form of monitoring the implementation of the consolidation and inauguration of the Hariyanto-Saiful Arifin success team at the village level throughout Pati Regency and monitoring the implementation of the rally campaign in the yard of Joyo Kusumo Stadium with 6,000 sympathizers of candidate pairs. The next stage was the implementation of Regent and Deputy Regent elections in Pati Regency which proceeded according to the stages that had been scheduled by the KPU of Pati, which was conducted simultaneously on February 15, 2017 with a total of 2,295 polling stations scattered in 406 villages and 21 subdistricts. The flow of realizing government from the people, by the people, and for the people, is no longer unstoppable. The community's participation in the implementation of the election was without any intervention from anyone, there was a freedom to choose a candidate for the head of the region, even be elected as a leader. This was shown by the high desire of citizens involved in the event of the elections, the level of community participation in Pati's Pilkada (Regional Election) reached 68.7 percent. Pilkada's implementation policies in Pati regency were tried to be analyzed using a prospective analysis model which is a form of policy analysis that directs its study to the consequences of policies before a policy is implemented. This model can be called a predictive model because it often involves forecasting techniques to predict the possibilities that arise from a policy that will be proposed8. Decisions to be taken in this analysis will result in policy recommendations.
The discussion on forecasting is a crucial thing in discussing public policy because from forecasting it will be known what kind of social, economic, and political conditions in the future, then intervention can be made through government policy. Forecasting is to determine factual information about future situations based on current information. By the data above and the high level of community participation with single pair candidates (68.7 percent) and by using linear regression, the estimated voter participation in the Pati Regency's elections in 2023 will increase reaching 87.676 percent. It means that in the next five years there will be a significant increase in voter participation along with the increased socialization by the KPU and related institutions and election participants. This increased participation will encourage the level of democratization in general elections and the election of regional heads or regents. The result of these calculations can be used to develop alternative policies in the next period. Policy alternatives can be obtained by gathering information and sources related to the problem being studied. The existing alternatives are to see how the best approach to the problem at hand is having a single pair of leader candidates.